Monday, March 02, 2015

The Ferguson Effect

This has been noted in other places at other times, but this is the most recent and better documented as far as we can tell:
  • Numbers provided by the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department show a downward trend, last year, in the numbers of self-initiated activity (S.I.A.)

    The numbers show a high last year of more than 21,000 S.I.A. in March, now down by more than half to about 7,000 in December.

    Chief Sam Dotson told Fox 2 News, "Police officers have an intuition. That intuition helps them to determine when to do self-initiated activity. It does reduce crime."

    Though Dotson warns that the drop in S.I.A. doesn`t tell the whole story. During a period in 2013, he said crime also dropped along with S.I.A. He added, "That means police officers` activities were paying dividends. They were stopping the right people. They were in the neighborhoods experiencing crime. They were doing their jobs and doing it well."

    One of the steepest drops in S.I.A. occurred after the August 2014 police shooting of Michael Brown in a St. Louis suburb. Another steep drop in S.I.A. occurred after the Grand Jury decision on Nov. 24. Dotson said criminals felt empowered, while officers felt hampered by what he calls the "Ferguson Effect."

    S.I.A. numbers are climbing again, Dotson said.
The fourth paragraph is an interesting conundrum.
  • During a period in 2013, he said crime also dropped along with S.I.A. He added, "That means police officers` activities were paying dividends. They were stopping the right people. They were in the neighborhoods experiencing crime. They were doing their jobs and doing it well."
It doesn't really mean that at all. We've heard and participated in the argument, "If you have less police, you have less crime." We take that to mean that unless the police are there to make an arrest or generate a report, society is willing to tolerate certain levels of misbehavior. You can see that in the CPD today. Rahm/McCarthy (and Daley/assorted superintendent) have made it inconvenient to report crime.
  • 3-1-1? Hour long wait times and more. 
  • Garage burglary? We'll just downgrade that to a Theft. 
  • Evidence Technician? They'll be there when they get there, and even when they arrive, there's nothing retrievable many times. Detectives move the "X" and suspend the case. 
  • Dead body tied to a chair?  Burned beyond recognition? Hole in the head and no gun around? Death Investigation.
Of course, this is a double-edged sword. People want government to solve their problems - individual problems, family problems, community problems. Then they bitch about how you work at it. So coppers learn to temper their responses and in the event of a Ferguson-type event, they learn to back off the throttle completely. Survival mode. Of course, then the old saw gets played, "Why didn't you do something back when blah blah blah? You racist police!"

The Chief is alleging that self-initiated stops dropped and so did crime because they were stopping the right people - that's pure CompStat bullshit right there. Crime dropped because people put up with it and most likely didn't report it. Then criminals get bolder and crime goes from little things like dope dealing and thefts to home invasions, rapes, murders, and it gets that much harder to shove the genie back in the bottle.

We feel we're in that sort of downward spiral right now. Discuss.

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26 Comments:

Anonymous Joe Stein said...

I agree. It's hands off the rats. Drive carefully to any job and back each other up.

3/02/2015 12:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Comstat said...

I lower crime you fools! There is no crime that I can't downgrade and reclassify ..well maybe auto theft, but thats not a violent crime so who cares. Ya'll better recognize. Where is my promotion? Perhaps Sgt Comstat is in order and well deserved.

3/02/2015 12:20:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let communities do more self policing. Require every household to have at least one firearm of some kind and allow the citizens to use those firearms as needed to protect themselves and their property. Once a citizen uses a firearm for such purposes, do a brief investigation and if it is a righteous shoot give the citizen back his gun, pat him on the back and allow him to go on his way. No trial, no lawsuit and no hassle.
It ought to work.

3/02/2015 12:35:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

311 is a legitimate unit now. Once you get to 311, no matter the circumstances, you're there for good. The dept just wants to crank reports out.

3/02/2015 12:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Say Welcome Back! to the good old days. Which really weren't so good. And they remind us we are all getting old.

To celebrate we should sponsor a movie festival.

Taxidriver
Warriors
Death Wish I, II, III, etc
Escape from NY, LA
Taking of Pelham 123 (the good one with Walter Mathau)
Fort Apache The Bronx

3/02/2015 01:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who cares what happens in Ferguson Mo? Or St. Louis,Mo? It's a shit hole part of the world run by shit head Governor who sold the people out, by shithead Mayors or worst, shit head Chiefs of Police who don't have a clue.Let's move on. Except for the Police there is nothing down there worth talking about.

3/02/2015 06:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why don't white folks riot and loot? Don't they want some free stuff too?

3/02/2015 06:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That sounds about right.

3/02/2015 07:24:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've seen first hand how the city kills crime. Person shot at, evidence recovered, no offender identified, let's make it a CDTP or CDTV or Simple Assault. It happens more frequently than you would think.

3/02/2015 07:28:00 AM  
Blogger The Keesing Bandit said...

Downward spiral---no. Free fall---yes.

3/02/2015 07:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have a different angle on this. People are comfortable in St. Louis with CCW now. The concept of CCW is fully matured and now certain crime is down.

3/02/2015 08:05:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If ever should their be less police, it should be cut on the management side. They are non essential to this job, Oak leafs, Eagles, railroad tracks, and of course thie idiots with the 5 points on their collars. What do they really do when it comes down to policing? Everyth they do can be done at the district level by the stripes and bars.

3/02/2015 08:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Ace Crime Fighter said...

Speaking of crime, Feburary 2015 saw the fewest murders, by one, since 1961, according to WGN news.
Now what could have been a major factor in this incredible drop in savagery? The great policing strategy out of MacHQ? Yea that must be it. Time for another ribbon.
Bwahahahaha!!

3/02/2015 08:15:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agreed. It is only a matter of time that the bad guys will realize the police are undermanned to a point that crime really will pay. I think they are starting to see it now with the folly of writing ANOVs instead of making arrests.

3/02/2015 08:19:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

how many contact cards have you written.... and the list goes on and on.....how many days until retirement is the only index I work by and live by.....

3/02/2015 09:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can get a copy and read a justice department report that comes out every year on " self reported crime". The feds use the census department to contact people about crime in their households and whether it was reported or not. It is s surprising report that does not jive with any cities numbers. It seems that most people just do not report crime, all crimes except homicide of course . Anything covered by insurance likely is reported, but batteries, rapes, robberies, lots of thefts and burglaries just go unreported.

3/02/2015 09:32:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Quality over Quantity" is bullshit. It's "lowering the bar because black and brown can't conform"

In the 80's and 90's if you realized you forgot your license and were only going a couple of blocks you went back inside and got your license because if you got stopped you were going to the station until someone came up with your bond. Now it's a miracle if anyone has a license.

Broken Windows and Zero Tolerance works but then enforcing the law becomes racism so everyone must get a pass.

3/02/2015 09:51:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"They were stopping the right people". How about they just let cops trust their instincts and stop shitbag when he needs to be stopped and not going after everyone if they fart the wrong way just to keep their contact card numbers high !

3/02/2015 10:16:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

At 6:58am...they do riot but they may not want free stuff and just be satisfied with destroying public and private property after major sporting events. Oh yeah..forgot the fires but no I don't recall looting. They have a code to live by.

3/02/2015 12:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who cares what happens in Ferguson Mo? Or St. Louis,Mo? It's a shit hole part of the world run by shit head Governor who sold the people out, by shithead Mayors or worst, shit head Chiefs of Police who don't have a clue.Let's move on. Except for the Police there is nothing down there worth talking about.


And that place is any different from here how?

3/02/2015 02:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's the problem, and it is a vexing one for police. Ultimately, it is the community, citizens elected officials or whoever decide who and what they want policed. We want to lock up bad guys and keep them in jail for a long time. It is frustrating for us because we see that society will put up with a certain amount of crime, like stealing cars as a right of passage. we look at this and wonder why. But we have to remember, like the military, civilians tell us what to do, we can not decide on our own what our bigger mission is. It sucks, especially with Mayors like Daley and Rahm, but we take an oath, and we have to abide by it or things fall apart. If the community wants less policing, so be it. It is not worth us getting that upset about it. Accept it, don't like it, or move on.

3/02/2015 02:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't arrest anybody, the people will scream to bring back John Burge

3/02/2015 04:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This has jack shit about public perception , it falls back to articulating probable cause , not making shit up once you get in the station like 95% of coppers working the ghetto do. There was a time when you were called into the WCs Office ,he asked what happened & listened. Nowadays, it's What did you do and the presumption of guilt is on you. Training & competent leadership plays a huge role if you have neither which CPD doesnt , this is the result.

3/02/2015 05:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Society ultimately gets the police force they clamor for.

There will always be cops who work and cops who don't work, in spite of society wanting a disengaged police force.

3/03/2015 02:33:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How many blacks applied to become police officers in ferguson , how many were qualified ?

3/03/2015 12:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ferguson should not give in , list the area where most calls for service , where most crimes are committed and description of offenders of reported crime in Ferguson .
Police Officer was wrongly accused for protecting himself .

3/03/2015 11:34:00 PM  

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